09 April 2012

Empty Ideas

Jim Hansen, a well-respected and obviously very intelligent NASA climatologist, has apparently called for a global carbon tax to cut CO2 emissions to acceptable levels. A few problems, though:

First, taxes have been a favorite topic among economists because of their theoretical efficiency.  If (and this is a very big if) regulators know both the marginal damages of a pollutant and the marginal costs of abating it, then they can set the tax at a level that will encourage polluters to reduce their emissions to the socially optimal level.  Taxes also raise revenue, which can be used to finance clean energy projects or offset the costs imposed on polluters.  Unfortunately, the theory of taxation also restrictively assumes perfect information and efficient markets, neither of which are attainable in real life.  If they were, we wouldn't have a problem in the first place.

Second, emissions taxes don't guarantee the success of abatement goals.  One possible outcome is that polluters will just pay the tax and shift part or all of the burden onto the consumers without reducing their emissions, which would have distributional implications that I won't go into right now.  Cap-and-trade - which puts a socially optimal "cap" on emissions, distributes emission permits and allows polluters to figure out the cheapest way to abate and trade permits among themselves - has been more effective in practice, and economists like Nathaniel Keohane have argued in favor of cap-and-trade over taxes from both theoretical and empirical perspectives.

Third and finally, Hansen calls for a global tax, but he dismisses the idea of a government being effective enough to implement it: "We can't simply say that there's a climate problem, and leave it to the politicians. They're so clearly under the influence of the fossil fuel industry that they're coming up with cockamamie solutions which aren't solutions. That is the bottom line."

Well, maybe that's true.  But who, exactly, is supposed to administer the tax if governments are ineffective, incompetent, or both?  Even if we ignore the theoretical challenges of taxes, it's irresponsible to ignore the political infeasibility of its implementation.  This is the most significant roadblock to a global carbon tax.

Yes, politicians are coming up with plenty of "cockamamie solutions", but we should expect more from our top scientists.

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Side note: Climate change is not on the same level as slavery at all.  What a silly comparison.

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